9 – Introduction to Nuclear Safeguards & Security: Threat-Informed Nuclear Security

Another key to a strong nuclear security system
is to have a threat-informed approach to creating the physical protection system. In order to have a treat-informed approach,
nuclear security planners must understand all potential threats and create their physical
protection systems accordingly. First, they should analyze the likelihood
of each threat, and next they should analyze the forms in which this threat might appear. One way to do this is with a threat matrix. A threat matrix basically analyzes the intent
of an adversary times their capabilities. The intent would be how determined an adversary
is to access protected material. The capability would mean the material means
by which they would access the nuclear material. These terms are then placed on a matrix like
the one that you see here. The top right box is the box with the highest
threat. The bottom-left will contain the least threatening
adversaries. So we can go over an example. We are looking at a hypothetical terrorist
organization. It’s a large, organized terrorist organization. It’s concentrated in Country A, and it has
little opposition from the domestic government. There are several targets. Your country is one target. Country B, Country D, and personnel and businesses
from targets located in country A. There’s an affiliate organization, or there are many
affiliate organizations located in country C, which borders country D. Lone wolf actors
are known to operate in your country, but so far you’ve experienced few attacks. Lone wolf actors also operate in Country B.
Country B has experienced more attacks than your country, and they are also experiencing
an upsurge in radicalized pockets of their population. This terrorist organization is known to have
connections to heavy arms dealers in Country E. It has shown willingness to use tactics
on large areas of the public and does not target specific population. It’s also acquiring funds through front companies
and charities located worldwide. Large amount of funds are coming through used
to buy arms from Country E and provide salaries and benefits for those operating within its
network. Now we will place this hypothetical terrorist
organization on the threat matrix according to the threat to each state. So first we’ll analyze the capabilities. Its capabilities are high, so we see it’s
very well-funded. It’s a large terrorist organization. It has advanced arms capabilities, so we’ll
have it pretty far to the right of the spectrum. We will place it here. Now let’s analyze its intent. Its intent might be different in regards to
each country. So, for country D, they have the highest intent
towards Country D. It’s a bordering country. There are cells located in Country D, and
it’s easy to access to attack Country D. So Country D will have this adversary highest
on the spectrum. Country B might be next. So there are lone wolf actors active in Country
B, and it has a recently radicalized public; however, Country B might feel comfortable
that it’s less likely to suffer a large-scale attack because of distance. This could be true, could be not, but it might
affect their analysis of the group. Your country would be next. There are lone wolf actors; however, there
have been few attacks, and there’s distance between. Country E would be low. They’re not a target country. Country C, fairly low. Not a target country. Country A, probably medium, because, although
they’re not a direct target, they could experience side effects of the group targeting other
targets within their borders. So, you as you see here each country might
view this terrorist organization to have a different level of intent and capabilities
relative to that country, so after determining the threat of this hypothetical terrorist
organization, a State national security regime can then allocate resources accordingly. Country D will want to allocate a high amount
of resources to securing its radiological facilities, especially since it is the most
high intent for an attack. This is called a design-based threat approach,
or a threat informed security design. The State outlines the adversarial characteristics
and then designs their facilities to protect against each adversary which a State might

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